WASHINGTON — A former Fort Drum colonel now in charge of training Iraqi security forces said the Iraqis may not be ready to stand on their own before early 2009, and possibly not until 2012.
Lt. Gen. James M. Dubik told the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday that the Iraqi security forces continue to grow and are not shying from fights but need a few more years to become fully trained and equipped, not only to protect the public but to ensure their own safety.
Gen. Dubik's time frame mirrors that given by Iraq's defense minister, with whom he meets regularly, he said, and who gave a similar scenario to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., earlier this week.
Iraqi forces will be ready to protect themselves before they are ready to stand on their own for "external" security, Gen. Dubik said, a goal that may have to wait until 2018.
The Iraqis' biggest challenge is securing enough helicopters, artillery and other weaponry and equipment, and mastering its use. In addition, he said under questioning from Rep. John M. McHugh, R-Pierrepont Manor, some 23 percent of the force is on leave at any time — in part because the decrepit banking system forces officers to physically take their pay home to family members.
"If you have a reliable banking system, you can at least take away a lot of the excuses for absenteeism," Mr. McHugh said.
Gen. Dubik said he does not see any near-term success in reducing the percentage on leave. But the rate of officers absent without leave has declined and generally, he said, the security forces have made good progress.
"They're very much into the fight," Gen. Dubik said, suffering regular casualties even as they train. The Iraqis run about 300 air patrols weekly, for instance, he said, and have taken charge of their own security in eight of the country's 19 provinces.
The Iraqi army has expanded by about 55,000 soldiers in the past year, he said, and the national police has grown by 7,500.
Iraqi security forces could total 580,000 by end of this year, Gen. Dubik said.
Gen. Dubik is a former brigade commander with the 10th Mountain Division, leading the 2nd Brigade in Haiti in 1994. He has gone on to help design some of the Army's reconfigured brigades as the service moves away from traditional heavy and light units.
