Assemblyman Darrel J. Aubertine appears to have a slim lead in the 48th state Senate District race, but it's still too close to call.

According to a Watertown Daily Times/Zogby International poll of likely voters, Mr. Aubertine leads Assemblyman William A. Barclay by 40.3 percent to 37.6 percent, with 22.1 percent undecided.

The margin of error in the poll is 4.5 percent, making the race a statistical dead heat.

Zogby, an internationally recognized polling firm based in Utica, interviewed 506 likely voters by telephone Thursday and Friday.

Home territory was important. Mr. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, had substantial leads in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties, while Mr. Barclay, R-Pulaski, was well ahead in Oswego County.

Mr. Aubertine also enjoyed a much higher favorability rating, but that might not necessarily mean he will win the majority of undecided voters.

The $2 million campaign appears to have made little difference in support for the two candidates. Only 12.9 percent of voters said they had switched allegiances during the campaign — with equal numbers going each way.

Respondents also said that each candidate's premierissue was of little importance to them. Mr. Barclay's campaign created one television ad, one radio spot and one mailer about his opposition to Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer's proposal to offer driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Mr. Aubertine responded by sending four mailers to constituents clarifying his position on the issue.

Of voters polled, 7.3 percent said that was the most important of five issues listed, while 48.5 percent said it was the least important of the five issues.

Mr. Aubertine, meanwhile, has made the outsourcing of jobs a primary focus, sending 10 mailers to constituents about the issue and including it in several television spots. In response, Mr. Barclay held two press conferences, cut a radio ad and broached the issue in a television ad made in response to Mr. Aubertine's spots.

However, only 6.7 percent of respondents said jobs outsourcing was the top of five issues, and 17.4 percent said it was the least important of the issues.

The poll's questions on issues were not intended to be an all-encompassing list but were designed to offer alternatives to what the candidates presented.

In all three counties, respondents said bringing more jobs to the region was their biggest concern.

There were 112 respondents, or 22.1 percent, who are still unsure of their candidate. Among those who have made up their mind, Mr. Aubertine captured 51.8 percent of the vote, with Mr. Barclay receiving 48.2 percent.

Each candidate holds a comfortable lead in his home county.

Mr. Aubertine was picked by 51.2 percent of likely Jefferson County voters polled. Mr. Barclay was picked by 27.7 percent in the same group.

Mr. Barclay was favored by 50.9 percent of 216 likely Oswego County voters polled. Mr. Aubertine captured 30.3 percent from that group.

Although Oswego County has 46.5 percent of the district's total registered voters, Mr. Aubertine's advantages in Jefferson and St. Lawrence could be too much for Mr. Barclay to overcome, even with a big win in Oswego.

Mr. Aubertine received 43.2 percent of likely St. Lawrence County voters of the poll's 125 respondents. Mr. Barclay got 27.4 percent from the same group. A portion of Mr. Aubertine's Assembly district is in St. Lawrence County.

St. Lawrence County had the highest percentage of undecided voters at 29.6 percent saying they were unsure. Jefferson County had 21.2 percent who said they were not sure of their candidate, while Oswego County had 19 percent undecided.

Mr. Aubertine could have an easier time attracting undecided voters before the Feb. 26 election based on more favorable view that poll respondents had of him as opposed to Mr. Barclay.

There were 58.7 percent of those polled who said they had a "somewhat favorable" or "very favorable" impression of Mr. Aubertine. Mr. Barclay received the same marks from 47.2 percent of those polled.

In St. Lawrence County, Mr. Aubertine received favorable marks from 65.6 percent of those polled. Mr. Barclay received favorable ratings from 40 percent of the county group.

The 48th Senate District seat has never been controlled by a Democrat. Republicans hold a 31,630 advantage in registrations over Democrats; there are 45,784 voters who are either aligned with a minor party or unaffiliated with any party.

The seat was held until Jan. 7 by former state Sen. James W. Wright, R-Watertown, who served as the district's representative for 15 years.