Statewide poll shows some senators in tight races

ALBANY — North country Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine enjoyed a strong showing in Tuesday's Siena Research Institute survey of state Senate races. But polls taken in other closely contested Senate districts show that the battle to control the Legislature's upper house is far from over.

Republicans hold a 31-29 majority in the Senate, with two seats vacant.

While the Democrat from Cape Vincent holds a 51 percent to 31 percent lead over Republican challenger David A. Renzi of Watertown, Sen. Craig M. Johnson, R-Port Washington, is riding a lead of 49 percent to 25 percent over his Republican challenger, Barbara Donno, for the 7th District seat on Long Island.

"The Senate's two newest members who came into office after hotly contested special elections both enter the final six weeks of the campaign in very strong shape," Steven Greenburg, SRI spokesman, said in a press release. "Craig Johnson in Nassau County has a 24-point lead and Darrel Aubertine in north central New York has a 20-point lead."

In both cases, Mr. Aubertine and Mr. Johnson became the first Democrats to take their respective Senate seats in about 100 years.

In four of the six races covered by the survey, incumbents lead their challengers. In the case of the incumbent Democrats, Mr. Aubertine and Mr. Johnson, those leads are substantial. On the other hand, Republicans Caesar Trunzo and Joseph E. Robach lead their challengers by six and 11 points, respectively.

In the 15th District, Serphin R. Maltese, R-Queens, who was first elected to the Senate two decades ago, is all square with Democratic challenger Joseph Addabbo at 42 percent each.

In the 61st district, Joseph Mesi and Michael Ranzenhofer are vying for a seat occupied since 1993 by retiring Republican Sen. Mary Lou Rath. The race is a virtual dead heat, with the Democrat Mesi leading the Republican Ranzenhofer by 40 percent to 38 percent.

One observer speculates that the presidential race may be having a trickle-down effect on state races.

"There seems to be kind of an Obama coattail effect here," said Grant Reeher, professor of political science at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.

Mr. Reeher noted that new voter registration throughout upstate New York has been trending Democratic, by a wide margin, for years. He also suggested that Mr. Aubertine might still be riding a wave from his special election victory over Republican Assemblyman William A. Barclay, R-Pulaski, in February.

"The special election was so nasty that it may have inoculated the voters from nasty TV ads," Mr. Reeher said. "They may be saying that we don't want to reconsider this now."

Times staff writer Jude Seymour contributed to this report.