Poll shows Aubertine-Renzi race tighter
State Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine held an 11-point lead over Republican David A. Renzi with six days until Election Day, with the challenger cutting the Democrat's decisive margin from 45 days ago almost in half, according to a new poll released Sunday by the Siena Research Institute, Loudonville.
Mr. Aubertine, a former assemblyman elected to the Senate in February, was picked by 49 percent of the 454 registered voters who told Siena on Oct. 29 that they would likely vote in Tuesday's election. Mr. Renzi, a Watertown attorney, received 38 percent of the vote. Thirteen percent of respondents are undecided.
The one-day poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, according to researchers.
Mr. Aubertine led Mr. Renzi 51 percent to 31 percent, with 19 percent undecided, after the first Siena poll, conducted Sept. 12 through 17.
Despite still facing a double-digit deficit, Mr. Renzi saw positives in the poll numbers.
"Every indication, from our internal polling to the enthusiasm that I see on the street and in the eyes of voters — and my opponent's increasingly personal, negative and distorted campaign — confirm that the gap has narrowed in this state Senate campaign. Every vote will count on Tuesday, and I am confident that I will win," he said in a statement.
Mr. Aubertine's campaign team, meanwhile, is not taking the apparent lead for granted.
"We've weathered three months and more than a million dollars' worth of negative misleading ads, and still the people of Central and Northern New York are responding to Darrel's message of cutting property taxes, saving, improving access to affordable health care, and ensuring that our children receive a quality education," said Cort M. Ruddy, the senator's campaign coordinator. "Regardless of what the poll says, it doesn't change the work we have to do or our efforts to get voters to the polls."
During the first poll, 51 percent of respondents said they didn't know Mr. Renzi or had no opinion about him. The new poll suggests the Republican made the greatest inroads in Oswego County, where he led Mr. Aubertine 44 percent to 37 percent, with 19 percent undecided. He previously trailed Mr. Aubertine 48 percent to 28 percent, with 24 percent undecided, in a county where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by a 2-to-1 ratio.
Mr. Aubertine may have lost his advantage in Oswego County, but the poll indicates he's extended leads in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties. The Democrat is ahead 60 percent to 35 percent in the candidates' home county, with 5 percent undecided. He previously led 52 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided.
And Mr. Aubertine is up 59 percent to 29 percent, with 12 percent undecided, in St. Lawrence County. He previously led 54 percent to 27 percent, with 19 percent undecided.
Mr. Aubertine lost Oswego County, which had the lowest turnout of the three counties, in the Feb. 26 special election against Pulaski resident Will Barclay, but still prevailed because of strong returns in the more active northern counties.
As likely voters got to know Mr. Renzi in the last 45 days, the percentage of people who have an unfavorable impression of him went up significantly, according to the poll.
The Republican candidate is now viewed favorably by 40 percent of poll respondents and unfavorably by 35 percent. Twenty-five percent are undecided. In the first poll, Mr. Renzi was seen in a favorable light by 34 percent of respondents. Fifteen percent viewed him unfavorably.
Mr. Aubertine has also seen his unfavorable numbers rise, from 21 percent in the first poll to 31 percent in the second poll. His favorable numbers are similar in both polls, with 58 percent in the first poll and 54 percent in the second.
Each candidate scored high favorable marks with respondents in their own party, so it may come down to how those registered in minor parties or without party affiliation view the candidates.
Mr. Aubertine is viewed favorably by 52 percent of the independent/other group, while Mr. Renzi is viewed favorably by 36 percent. That group views both candidates similarly unfavorably, with the senator at 31 percent and the challenger at 30 percent. Thirty-five percent of independents or others said they have no opinion of Mr. Renzi, while 17 percent said the same of Mr. Aubertine.
As for how that might translate to votes, 49 percent of independents or others said they would pick Mr. Aubertine, while 34 percent said they'll take Mr. Renzi. Eighteen percent were undecided. Those numbers are up 8 percent for Mr. Aubertine, but down 3 percent for Mr. Renzi from the September poll.
The Republican Party holds a significant enrollment advantage in the 48th Senate District, with 46.6 percent of the district's 155,472 active voters being registered with the GOP, according to March tabulations by the state Board of Elections. Democrats make up 27.8 percent of the active roll, with minor parties and blanks making up the remaining 25.6 percent.
Siena also released poll results for five other races that may determine the majority in the state Senate. Republicans and Democrats are leading two races each, with one a statistical dead heat.
Complete poll results are available online.
