A return to the north country, a return to a new reality

I'm back. My last column ran in September 2007, just as I was leaving for Ukraine for a 10-month Fulbright scholarship. I saw many things in the past year that were amazing and many that were really awful. Now, however, life in Northern New York looks better than ever to me.

When I left, the national economy was reasonably strong, the Iraq war was going badly, local real estate was selling briskly and Eliot Spitzer was our governor. Today the economy is tanking, Iraq is looking hopeful, local real estate sales are grim and Eliot has moved on. What a difference a year makes.

Most things have not changed. The local economy is troubled, but when has it not been? The people of the region are still hard-working and sensible in the face of economic woes, and there is more hope about than despair. Wal-Mart has arrived in force, but the small retail sector has yet to collapse. We love and hate windmills with great passion. Government agencies still try to create jobs and economic growth by attracting new employers. Most real growth in the region, however, comes from the work of small businesses that quietly try to stay afloat and earn a living. We are tortoises here, not hares.

What lies ahead? For the local economy, better news than in many areas of the state.

"Lake-effect economics" — the significant supply of public payrolls in our communities, including prisons, governments, schools and Fort Drum — will act to stabilize the worst ravages of recession. Public servants are seldom affected by recessions like the private sector, and the steady spending from those workers will provide ongoing demand for our retail sector and a reliable sales and property tax base. Times won't be good, necessarily, but they won't be nearly as bad as in other areas.

Looking at the New York State Department of Labor's comparison of recessions for the state and nation, it is clear that we see a recession roughly every 10 years and that New York recessions usually last noticeably longer than the rest of the country's — averaging 2.5 years in the state versus one year or less for the nation.

If that pattern holds true, we can expect two to three years of limited regional growth before things brighten up. If we can survive long north country winters, we can survive this economic frost. Check out www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/icei.shtm to study the pattern for yourself.

What lies ahead for this column? Continued coverage of important areas of business and economics in our community.

I am looking forward to doing pieces on alternative energy, the local financial sector, tourism and retailing — and the chance to write about local businesses that are important to us all. The column will be shorter, punchier and, I hope, more interesting and interactive. I invite readers to contact me with ideas, suggestions, questions and feedback both positive and not so positive. Pontificating from an ivory tower in academia gets lonely. Please tell me what you think.

You can send me e-mails at ggardner@wdt.net or write to me in care of the Watertown Daily Times, 260 Washington St., Watertown, NY 13601. I am glad to be back and hope this column can be a useful and interesting part of the life of business in our community. Good luck.

Greg Gardner is an associate professor of business at SUNY Potsdam. His column on business issues in the north country is published monthly in Money Matters.