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Iran conflict

U.S. sees chance to advance agenda in region
MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2009
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The scenes of government militias beating unarmed protesters in Iran are disturbing.

So is Tehran's decision to quell dissent and quiet questions about the presidential election through brute force.

But the Iranian government's behavior toward its own people may prove an opportunity for the United States to recover some standing in the region at Iran's expense.

For one thing, Iran's domestic problems may cause it to reduce its support for militant groups Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Some analysts theorize that Iran's clout in the region could be jeopardized by its treatment of demonstrators. As one U.S. military official told the Wall Street Journal, "You can't be killing people in your own country and expect to still have that kind of influence" in the region.

The Obama administration is looking to exploit the situation. The United States just returned an American ambassador to Damascus after four years, and President Barack Obama is seeking, through persuasion, to weaken Syria's military and economic alliance with Iran.

"If Syria feels the Iranian situation is unraveling, that's a good thing from our perspective," an administration official said.

Should Iran lose face in the region, that could help stabilize Lebanon and advance the Mideast peace process, the thinking goes. It could help weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon and unite political factions in the Palestinian territories — Hamas and the more moderate Fatah.

At times opportunity can arise out of conflict, and the administration is looking for some openings.

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