U.S. official expects some violence for Afghan election

Col. David B. Haight said he expects violence to accompany Afghanistan's national elections Aug. 20, but he predicted nothing will derail the country's move toward democracy.

The leader of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, which is helping provide security during the elections, said he doesn't care who wins — as long as the voting takes place.

"I believe there will be attacks at polling sites, but nothing that will stop the overall collective effectiveness," he said during a video conference Thursday. "I'm not saying it will be a day of business as usual, but in a way it will be because our tactics are designed to create security to make the elections as safe as possible."

The security plan for polling sites has three levels.

The Afghan National Police will be directly around the sites with Afghan army in the surrounding community. The outer layer will be NATO-led troops that will provide fire and air support.

Col. Haight said it was important to let the Afghanis secure their own election and keep American soldiers in the background.

He said there are 173 polling sites in Wardak and Logar province, south of Kabul, that will serve an estimated 1 million people. He expects there to be a high turnout on election day.

Col. Haight said he is concerned about one thing he sees in Afghanistan.

"There is a little bit of apathy," he said. "Some of the apathy that I have run into is based on them not thinking it will make a difference."

He said his sense is that many Afghan citizens have not witnessed progress since President Hamid Karzai was first elected in 2005 and do not believe voting will change anything. This time around there are 41 other candidates for the top government post, and one must have at least 51 percent of the vote to win.

He said the apathy has subsided slightly in the past few months as campaigning has increased and the national newspapers and radio stations have begun to broadcast more information. Still, the national elections are not all-consuming as they can be in the U.S. when campaigning begins months ahead of time.

Col. Haight also said he is more concerned with what will happen after the elections.

"I believe, as does my political adviser, that the more volatile and critical time will be post-election," he said. "If there is a landslide win, the election won't be perceived as legitimate. If there is a runoff, there will be a challenge. A victory in the 53 to 59 percent is the sweet spot."

Regardless of the outcome of the election, he said, violent attacks are expected to continue. July was the deadliest month for NATO forces in Afghanistan with 74 deaths, 43 of which were American soldiers. Of those 43, eight were with the 3rd Brigade.

The summer months have traditionally seen an increase in Taliban activity, and Col. Haight predicts there is another two months of heavy activity ahead. Most of the attacks have been large and powerful improvised explosive devices.

"We've suffered some heartbreaking losses here in the last few weeks," he said. "It's a very violent season right now and we are always very vigilant, but bottom line is that it's game on right now."