Strategies for success in the Northern New York of the future

The economic crisis seems to have brought out the fortuneteller in many strategy writers. Their books and articles look at major economic and social trends that are supposed to be sweeping the planet, then try to offer some useful business advice on how to deal with those trends.

Some, like Farheed Zacharia of CNN, predict a world where America is no longer the dominant economic power and the U.S. dollar is just one in a basket of world currencies. Others, like George Friedman of Stratfor.com, predict U.S. dominance of the world for the rest of the century or beyond.

In any event, guessing at the economic future of the world can be fun, but it might be more useful to look at the future of our little slice of the global economy.

What will business and the economy look like in Northern New York in 2020?

This crisis will be well behind us, along with the subsequent inflation that is likely to emerge once demand begins to pick up. We may be richer or poorer or just the same, but things should be interesting along the way.

A review of the current crop of books, articles and Web sites shows a general consensus on future trends. The most consistent to emerge are outsourcing, globalization, advancing information/communications technologies, alternative energy/green business, and an aging population. Each of those will certainly change the world, and they will change the north country along the way.

OUTSOURCING

Outsourcing has already happened to us. Stream International, the largest private employer in Jefferson County, is a global outsourcing business, providing call center services for international businesses. Smaller businesses, like CAD & Facilities Services in Depauville, provide technical and engineering services to customers across the country.

Both businesses depend on reliable telecommunications capacities, a skilled but relatively low-cost local work force, and an ability to market to customers outside of the region.

If the predicted trend of increased outsourcing proves true, then we can expect a larger portion of our business base to involve outsourced services sold to customers nationally or globally. That will help offset the steady loss of manufacturing jobs we have been seeing for the past 20 years. If you are looking for a business to start locally, consider a business service that can be delivered electronically. There are a number of successful role models here already.

GLOBALIZATION

Globalization is too vague to really constitute a trend, but it usually means the expansion of international business and consolidation of markets among nations.

How ready for globalization are we here? According to the latest survey of the community by the Center for Community Studies at Jefferson Community College, 29 percent of the respondents in Jefferson County traveled outside of the United States, Canada or Mexico in the past five years. That is up from 24 percent in the 2008 survey but still fairly low. At the same time, visits to Canada have been dropping steadily for the past six years.

According to some earlier research by the CCS, other than the Fort Drum community, we are an under-traveled community whose members tend to speak only English. While English is the lingua franca of international business, we don't seem well prepared to market to customers abroad or to face global competition here at home.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

On the information technology front, however, we are moving along with the global tide. The same JCC survey shows that 74 percent of households in Jefferson County have Internet access and the average respondent spends 10.3 hours per week on the Internet.

The most common activities are e-mail (63 percent of respondents) and local news (57 percent). Fifty-five percent of all respondents have made an online purchase in the past year.

Figures for Lewis County are only slightly lower. Most Internet users (63 percent) have broadband cable connections, up from only 39 percent in 2006. There are 2.04 cell phones per household in Jefferson County, up from 1.44 in 2005. Almost 86 percent of households in Lewis County have a cell phone, and the number of homes with only cell phone service (no landline) is growing steadily.

We are a wired community and are using communications technologies at rates comparable to the nation as a whole. While younger and better-educated people tend to use more technology, use among those over 65 is strong and growing.

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

We are ripe for green alternative energy technologies. Not only do we have an expanding number of wind and hydropower plants, but support for these technologies is strong in our communities. In Jefferson County, the survey showed that 88 percent support increased use of wind power, 84 percent support more solar power, and 60 percent want increased hydropower production.

In Lewis County, support for wind turbines is strong, even among those who live near a turbine farm and earn no revenue from it. Given our rural position near large urban power markets and the expanding number of green energy technologies, we are well positioned to see substantial growth in our production and export of green power. As energy costs rise globally, we should be doing well by 2020.

AGING

Our population seems to be aging along with that of the rest of the developed world.

According to Census Bureau figures, our north country population is older than the state average, as fewer babies are born locally and young people move away. Our Canadian neighbors are in the same situation, as is much of Europe and Eurasia. This means fewer young customers and more demand for health care and vacations among the older set. The number of people living in Lewis and St. Lawrence counties has declined gradually over the past 20 years. Jefferson County has seen slight growth, but that is largely accounted for by additional troops and families at Fort Drum.

So how to prepare for 2020 in the north country? If you are a student and want to study business, make sure you get plenty of classes in international business and technology. Try learning a foreign language as well.

If you are seeking a career that offers stable growth and employment, consider some aspect of health care. If you are looking to start or grow a small business, look for opportunities online. Be prepared to master online marketing as well. Your customers are on the Internet, Facebook, Twitter and an emerging set of specialty social networking sites. Even your older customers will be using information and communications technologies at an increasing rate, and you will find yourself facing cyber competitors from all over the planet.

What looks like a good investment for 2020? Agriculture-based alternative fuels, global tourism and new IT infrastructure. Each is likely to do well here and generate jobs and revenues.

No one really knows what lies ahead, no matter how impressive their business card or their academic credentials. All we can do is study the past and hope it offers some clues to the future. If I am wrong, send me a tweet in 2020 and rub it in. If you have some predictions of your own for our future, let me know — by e-mail.

Greg Gardner is an associate professor of business at SUNY Potsdam. His column on business issues in the north country is published monthly in Money Matters. E-mail him at ggardner@wdt.net.