Survey: Hoffman lagging in race

Douglas L. Hoffman's poll told the Conservative Party candidate that he's running third in a three-way race for the 23rd Congressional District seat, 11 percentage points behind Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava.

It's what the rest of the survey revealed that has the Lake Placid accountant figuring he's got an excellent chance to win.

McLaughlin & Associates, Blauvelt, polled 300 district residents who indicated they would vote in a special election if it were held the same day as Election Day, Nov. 3. The poll was conducted via telephone Aug. 25 and Aug. 26.

Of that group:

■ Ninety, or 30 percent, said they would vote for or were leaning toward Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava, a state assemblywoman from Gouverneur.

■ Sixty, or 20 percent, picked or leaned toward William L. Owens, the Democratic candidate from Plattsburgh.

■ Fifty-seven, or 19 percent, picked or leaned toward Mr. Hoffman.

The poll had a plus or minus 5.7 percent margin of error.

With the poll indicating that no candidate has distanced himself from his two competitors, all three will be heavily courting the largest demographic: the 93 respondents, or 31 percent of the total, who said they are undecided.

John McLaughlin, the pollster hired by Mr. Hoffman, said this is where his candidate has the advantage. His company's poll said 44 percent of respondents said they hold a "conservative" ideology, while 31 percent self-identified as "moderate." Eighteen percent said they considered themselves to be liberal.

The pollster also pointed to questions about social issues, where 48 percent of respondents indicated they would support a candidate who was against abortion and for "traditional marriage" over a Republican and a Democrat who both support abortion rights and gay marriage. Sixteen percent said they based their vote on other issues.

"It's really very fertile grounds for Doug Hoffman to win this campaign," Mr. McLaughlin said.

Bradley D. Katz, a spokesman for Mr. Owens, said his campaign wasn't focused on partisan polling.

"Our campaign is moving forward and staying focused on talking to voters about Bill's record on creating jobs and his vision to bring economic development to Northern and Central New York," he said in a statement.

Matthew A. Burns, Ms. Scozzafava's spokesman, said numbers can be skewed and methodologies vary during polling.

"But you don't need a poll to prove you can't trust Doug Hoffman," he said.

HOFFMAN ENDORSED

Mr. Hoffman was endorsed Wednesday by the political action arm of the Concerned Women for America, a pro-life group that boasts more than half a million members nationwide.

"Doug is the only Conservative in the race, and the only candidate who is pro-life and pro-family," said Beverly LaHaye, founder and chairwoman, in explaining the endorsement.

The PAC sent a letter Tuesday to its members encouraging them to support Mr. Hoffman financially.

Michael Mears, the group's spokesman, estimated Wednesday that the group has slightly fewer than 1,000 members in the district who can also vote for the Conservative candidate.

Mr. Mears said the group would not support a candidate who supported civil unions for same-sex couples, prompting the Watertown Daily Times to again ask Mr. Hoffman his position. The Conservative candidate stands opposed.