Poll shows tie in 23rd District race

A new poll commissioned by a Washington D.C.-based group shows the 23rd Congressional District race as a statistical dead heat, with more than 45 percent of potential voters saying they haven't made up their minds.

Basswood Research, Bethesda, Md., polled 300 likely voters living in the district via telephone Sept. 17.

Of the group:

■ Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava was favored by 61 respondents, or 20.3 percent of the total pool.

■ William L. Owens, the Democratic Party's candidate, was liked by 52 respondents, or 17.3 percent of the total.

■ Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative Party's candidate, was supported by 51 respondents, or 17 percent of the total.

There were 136 people, or 45.3 percent, who said they were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.66 percent.

The poll was paid for by Club for Growth, a group that supports candidates who believe in limited government, Social Security reform and limited government spending, among other things.

David Keating, Club for Growth's executive director, said his group hasn't made an endorsement in the race, but added: "These poll results clearly show that New Yorkers may deliver a stunning rebuke to the big spenders in both the Republican and Democratic establishments."

Jon Lerner, the group's pollster, said the potential pool of respondents was picked at random from a list of registered district voters who had a history of voting in general elections. The sample, he said, was then built to correlate with actual voter distributions in the district based on turnout during the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Oswego County residents represented the largest segment — 19.3 percent — while Hamilton County residents were the smallest segment — 1.3 percent.

Those conducting the poll asked the respondents to pick a candidate after they asked questions about political ideology.

The group asked questions such as, "Would you prefer that your next member of Congress be a liberal Democrat, a liberal Republican or a Conservative Party candidate who would align himself with the Republicans in Congress?"

It's unknown if those types of prompts played a role in a respondent's decision when asked later if they would support "Bill Owens, the Democrat, Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, (or) Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate." The group said the candidates' names were rotated as each poll was given.

Mr. Hoffman's campaign released its own poll last week. In its poll of 300 likely voters, done Aug. 25 and 26, Ms. Scozzafava had support from 30 percent of the respondents. Mr. Owens had 20 percent, while Mr. Hoffman had 19 percent. Thirty-one percent were undecided.

Matthew A. Burns, Ms. Scozzafava's spokesman, dismissed the Club for Growth findings.

"Polls come and go. Methodologies vary. Numbers can be skewed," he said. "The fact is Dede is the best fit for the district, has a proven record of principled leadership, and she is the only candidate who has been open and transparent."

Shripal Shah, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's spokesman, said the results proved Ms. Scozzafava was "in trouble."