Siena: Scozzafava has 7 point lead in NY-23

A Siena Research Institute poll released this morning shows Republican Dede Scozzafava with a 7 point lead over Democratic candidate Bill Owens, 35-28, with Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman garnering 16 percent of the vote.

The poll was conducted via telephone Sept. 27-29 and included 622 likely voters who lived in the district. Its margin or error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Read the entire poll here.

Among the highlights:

Geography

• Ms. Scozzafava has her strongest support from voters in her Assembly district. She leads Mr. Owens 53-23, with 10 percent for Mr. Hoffman in "western north country," or Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.

• Mr. Owens has his strongest support not in his home county of Clinton, but in Central New York - Madison, Oneida & Oswego. He holds 30 percent support there, with Ms. Scozzafava and Mr. Hoffman tied at 20 percent each.

• Mr. Owens and Ms. Scozzafava are "virtually tied in the "eastern north country" - Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and Hamilton, with 32 percent for the Democratic candidate, 31 percent for the Republican and 18 percent for Mr. Hoffman.

Favorables

• Ms. Scozzafava is viewed favorably by 33 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 20 percent, with 47 percent not having an opinion.

• Most people don't have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman.

• Barack Obama and John McHugh are viewed favorably by respondents, while Nancy Pelosi and David Paterson are viewed unfavorably.

Priorities

• Respondents most want their House representative to work on the economy (34 percent), health care (30 percent), with the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan at 13 percent.

• In terms of who would do a better job on these priorities, voters gave Ms. Scozzafava a slight edge on the economy and gave Mr. Owens a slight edge on health care, the wars and homeland security. Between 40 and 50 percent of respondents didn't know who would be better on the six issues pollsters asked about.

Endorsements

• An endorsement from former Rep. John M. McHugh would make 40 percent of respondents more likely to vote for that candidate. (It's not going to happen.)

• Endorsements from Barack Obama, the respondent's local newspaper and organized labor would also help, but to a far lesser degree.

Commercials

• Sixty-five percent of people haven't seen or heard a radio or television commercial on behalf of Bill Owens. There have been three TV ads - two by the campaign, one by the DCCC - that have aired.

• Fifty-nine percent of people haven't heard radio or TV ads for Dede Scozzafava. There has been one of each from the National Republican Congressional Committee, but the candidate has yet to release any herself.

• Eighty-one percent of people have heard a radio or TV ad for Doug Hoffman. I don't know if his "Elvis" ad is airing yet on TV.