Survey: GOP candidate leading
Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava has a seven-point lead in a "wide-open" race for the 23rd Congressional District seat, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Thursday.
The poll reached 622 likely voters via telephone between Sunday and Tuesday.
Of that group:
■ Ms. Scozzafava was picked by 35 percent of the pool.
■ William L. Owens, the Democratic candidate, was chosen by 28 percent.
■ Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative candidate, garnered support from 16 percent of the group.
Twenty-one percent said they were undecided with five weeks to go until the Nov. 3 election. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percent. It was weighted by age, gender and party to mirror the district's demographics.
Pollster Steven Greenberg said Mr. Hoffman's double-digit showing could yield a winner who does not receive a majority of votes cast.
"This is a wide-open race. One in five voters is currently undecided," he added. "Add to that the fact that one-third of Scozzafava's current supporters and one-quarter of Owens's current supporters say they are not very certain of their choice and that they very well may change their minds between now and Election Day."
Mr. Greenberg said the Institute would definitely conduct one more poll in this race "because there's often movement in the final days before the election." The Institute did three polls during the special election for the 20th Congressional District seat last spring. Mr. Greenberg did not rule out the possibility of Siena conducting three polls for this race.
As for the first poll, Ms. Scozzafava's support is strongest in three of the counties — Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence — that she represents in the state Assembly. The Gouverneur resident leads Mr. Owens 53 percent to 23 percent, with 10 percent for Mr. Hoffman here.
Mr. Owens doesn't enjoy the same strong margins in his home territory, the poll said. The Plattsburgh attorney leads Ms. Scozzafava 32 percent to 31 percent among Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton and Fulton voters, with Mr. Hoffman drawing 14 percent.
The Democratic candidate's strongest showing is in Central New York, where he enjoys support from 30 percent of those polled in Madison, Oswego and Oneida counties. Ms. Scozzafava and Mr. Hoffman each have 20 percent support there.
Respondents said their two most important concerns were the economy and health care. Ms. Scozzafava and Mr. Owens were both considered equally capable of addressing those issues, as well as foreign wars, education, homeland security and bringing home more federal money.
But Mr. Greenberg pointed out: "On all six issues, between 40 and 50 percent of voters are undecided as to which of the three candidates they think would be best."
The poll suggests voters are still unfamiliar with all three candidates, especially the two political newcomers, Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman.
Seventy-one percent said they don't know enough about Mr. Hoffman to form an opinion, while 64 percent professed lacking enough knowledge about Mr. Owens.
Ms. Scozzafava earned a 33 percent favorable opinion among respondents, as opposed to 20 percent unfavorable. Forty-seven percent said they didn't know enough about her. Mr. Owens had a 23 percent favorable rating, versus 12 percent unfavorable. Mr. Hoffman had a 16 percent favorable rating, against a 13 percent unfavorable.
While Mr. Greenberg said Mr. Hoffman's candidacy will affect the final result, the polling suggests it will be difficult for the Conservative candidate to win.
Mr. Hoffman is considered almost equally favored as unfavored among independents and Democrats as well as in the counties around his Lake Placid home. And the Conservative candidate is more unfavorable than favorable to voters in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties, according to the polling.
