New Siena poll on NY-23 out tomorrow

The Siena Research Institute will unveil a second poll on the 23rd Congressional District race tomorrow, giving us a new independent look at how the landscape has changed since Oct. 1.

Republican Dede Scozzafava held a seven-point lead over Bill Owens, the Democrats' candidate, in the first poll, 35 percent to 28 percent. Doug Hoffman, the Conservatives' candidate, garnered 16 percent.

At the time, Mr. Owens and Mr. Hoffman were largely unknown quantities among respondents, with most saying they hadn't seen an ad the candidates had put out or knew enough to consider them in a favorable or unfavorable light.

There's been no shortage of advertisements since then, and, for Mr. Owens, no shortage of prominent people, like President Barack Obama, who have gone to bat for him.

It will be interesting to see if Ms. Scozzafava, who has lacked the resources needed to air her own spots for the most part, is still clinging to a lead or if Mr. Owens has vaulted past her. It will also be interesting to see if Mr. Hoffman has reached 20 percent support or better with three weeks left in the campaign.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg told North Country Public Radio that "it was hard to see a road map that would allow him (Mr. Hoffman) to win the race" after the first poll was unveiled. It will be interesting to hear if his opinion has changed in light of new numbers.

Siena is expected to conduct one more poll very close to election time, giving us three good snapshots of how this race unfolded in the voters' minds.