Siena: Owens up four points in NY-23 after 11-point swing in two weeks

Wow.

The second Siena poll released today shows Bill Owens, the Democrats' candidate, with a four-point lead over Republican Dede Scozzafava, 33 percent to 29 percent, with Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate, at 23 percent support.

In two weeks, Mr. Owens has turned a seven-point deficit into a four-point lead, while Mr. Hoffman has earned an additional seven points of support and is now within 10 points of the leading candidate with less than three weeks to go.

The survey was conducted Oct. 11-13 via telephone and had 617 respondents. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

What we've learned from the new poll:

• This election will very likely be won by a candidate who garners less than 40 percent support.
• The majority of respondents didn't know Mr. Owens or Mr. Hoffman when polled in late September. The new poll suggestions that as the candidates became better known, they also became more favorable picks in the minds of the respondents. In other words, Ms. Scozzafava held an artificial advantage in the first poll because people knew her and didn't know the others.
• It's no surprise that Ms. Scozzafava leads among Republicans and among people who live where she lives and works, and that Mr. Owens leads among Democrats and among people who live where he lives and works. But Mr. Hoffman leads among independent voters and has chipped away at Ms. Scozzafava's Republican support. The Conservative candidate is even polling better among Democrats than he was two weeks ago.
• Ms. Scozzafava is almost to the point where as many people view her unfavorably as favorably, which suggests the NRCC ads that have - to this point - dominated her TV appearances have hurt her considerably.
• Still almost half of voters say they don't know Mr. Owens enough to view him in a favorable or unfavorable light, and almost two-thirds say they don't know Mr. Hoffman. Mr. Owens is going to have the money to put his name out there from now until Election Day. If Mr. Hoffman can do the same, the poll suggests he will pick up more support.
• More support for the NRCC-is-doing-more-harm-than-good theory. Pollster Steve Greenberg says: "Among those who've seen Owens' commercials, a small plurality says the commercials make them more likely to support Owens. However, by a margin of 28-12 percent, those who've seen Scozzafava's commercials say those commercials make them less likely to support her."

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