Owens takes lead in new survey
William L. Owens has erased a seven-point deficit and now leads by four percentage points over Dierdre K. Scozzafava in the 23rd Congressional District race, according to a second poll released Thursday by the nonpartisan Siena Research Institute.
The poll reached 617 likely voters via telephone from Sunday to Tuesday. According to the poll:
■ Mr. Owens, the Democratic and Working Families parties' candidate, garnered 33 percent, up five points from Siena's Sept. 27 to 29 poll.
■ Ms. Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties' candidate, received 29 percent, down six points from the last poll.
■ Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, received 23 percent, up seven points from the last poll.
Sixteen percent of voters said they were still undecided three weeks before Election Day. The poll's margin of error is 3.9 percentage points.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg told North Country Public Radio following the release of the first poll that it was "very hard to see a road map that would allow him (Mr. Hoffman) to win this race." But Mr. Greenberg said Thursday he has reconsidered his position in light of new numbers.
"I can see a road map for any of these three candidates to win this race," he said. "And for anybody to say that Hoffman is not in the game at this moment is either kidding themselves or is not looking at the numbers."
Robert H. Ryan, Mr. Hoffman's spokesman, said the poll showed his candidate "surging" while Ms. Scozzafava was "dropping."
He pointed out the poll was completed Tuesday, the day the Hoffman campaign's media buy switched from the narrower audience of cable to the larger audience of broadcast television.
"As more voters get to know Doug Hoffman, more voters will support Doug Hoffman," he said. "This is a race between two liberals and a conservative. Doug Hoffman is the conservative and that's why he will win."
The poll suggests Mr. Hoffman is the favored candidate of voters who are registered without party affiliation, as well as the preferred candidate in Oneida, Oswego and Madison counties. The Conservative candidate also has improved his standing by five points among registered Republicans since the first poll. Ms. Scozzafava's numbers with the same group have dropped seven points between polls.
Ms. Scozzafava is still the favored candidate among Republican voters and those who live in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties, the poll suggests.
"Right now, she's only getting the support of 40 percent of Republicans," Mr. Greenberg said, noting that number has dropped from 47 percent. "She has got to stop the bleeding and find a way to bring Republicans back home, because they account for almost half of the voters on Election Day."
The polls suggest that her supporters might want to reconsider their advertising strategy. Ms. Scozzafava's campaign was viewed by respondents to be the most negative, while Mr. Owens's campaign was considered the most positive.
"Among those who've seen Owens' commercials, a small plurality says the commercials make them more likely to support Owens," Mr. Greenberg said. "However, by a margin of 28 to 12 percent, those who've seen Scozzafava's commercials say those commercials make them less likely to support her."
The polls suggest Mr. Owens is the favored candidate among Democrats and those living in Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and Hamilton counties.
"We're grateful for all the support we've received so far and we are optimistic that the momentum behind our campaign will continue between now and Election Day," said Jonathan P. Boughtin, Mr. Owens's spokesman.
Mr. Greenberg said the Democratic candidate will have to provide proper attention to the party's base in the final three weeks.
"He's at 65 percent, but there are still 27 percent of Democrats who are going to the other two candidates," the pollster said. "He's got to bring home every single last Democrat he can find."
Mr. Hoffman's campaign, Mr. Greenberg said, "has got to convince voters that he is a real alternative, that he's different than the two major party candidates on the issues and that he can win."
The pollster noted that 45 percent of respondents who said they would vote for Mr. Hoffman say they don't know enough about the candidate to have a favorable or unfavorable view.
"There is a certain portion of his vote that is a protest vote," Mr. Greenberg said. "I can't measure how big a portion that is, but the numbers clearly tell me there is a protest vote that is moving toward Hoffman."
What Mr. Greenberg felt more certain about was that the next congressman or congresswoman would likely win the election with less than 40 percent of the vote.
He said his group will conduct one final poll in the district very close to Election Day.
ON THE NET
Siena Research Institute poll: www.siena.edu/sri
