Club for Growth poll: Hoffman leading race

A new Basswood Research poll, paid for by Club for Growth, shows Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in the 23rd Congressional District, leading the race over Bill Owens, the Democrats' candidate.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has Mr. Hoffman at 31.3 percent, Mr. Owens at 27 percent and Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7 percent. Twenty-two percent are undecided.

Read the poll here.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5.66 percent, so Mr. Hoffman and Mr. Owens are actually in a statistical dead heat.

In a press release, Club for Growth said this is the third poll they've done in this special election. The Washington, D.C.-based group has a major stake in this race. They were one of the first groups to back Mr. Hoffman and have spent more than $550,000 on his behalf.

David Keating, the group's executive director, said CfG didn't consider the second poll "worth releasing" after it was conducted Oct. 13, but said Mr. Hoffman "had surpassed Dede by a narrow margin at that point."

"I'm comfortable saying it was pretty much steady between the first, second and third poll," he said.

I asked him what "it" was. Mr. Keating said that was "Hoffman's upward momentum and Dede's collapse."

The first CfG poll, conducted Sept. 17, showed a three-way dead heat. Ms. Scozzafava has 20.3 percent, with Mr. Owens at 17.3 percent and Mr. Hoffman at 17 percent. The margin of error in that poll was also plus or minus 5.66 percent.

So just a guess, but that second poll may have had Mr. Hoffman around 24 percent, and Ms. Scozzafava around 20 percent.

When I asked Mr. Keating about some of his methodologies, he offered this: "When we do polls, we want to know what the truth is. We're not trying to say this guy is up or down."

Jon Lerner, Basswood Research's pollster, said Mr. Hoffman has a "wide lead" among both Republicans and independents, while Mr. Owens has a "wide lead" among Democrats. I don't know what "wide" is.

"Dede Scozzafava's support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week," he concluded.

Some highlights from the poll:

• Forty-one percent of respondents considered themselves to be conservative, following by 30.7 percent who identified as moderate. Eighteen percent considered themselves liberal.
• Health care was the respondent's top priority.
• Respondents thought Mr. Owens would do the best in "creating jobs," followed closely by Mr. Hoffman.
• Mr. Hoffman was considered the best for "reducing Washington spending by almost a 2-to-1 margin.
• The geographic location of the poll's respondents coorelates to the geographic location of the turnout during the 2008 congressional election between John McHugh and Mike Oot. Mr. Oot lived in Madison County, which may impacted turnout there.
• Sixty-five percent of respondents were over the age of 55.

I asked Republican Dede Scozzafava what she made of her showing in this poll.

"I don't have any faith in that poll," she said. "I'm quite confident and comfortable that we're going to win this race because we're addressing the voters directly."

Ms. Scozzafava added: "Instead of taking polls, Mr. Hoffman's supporters should tell him to get in front of the voters."