Polls: Truth tellers or propaganda?

The Minuteman PAC, a conservative group supporting Doug Hoffman in the 23rd Congressional District race, has released a self-administered poll showing Mr. Hoffman with a five-point lead over Bill Owens, the Democrats' candidate.

The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday with 336 likely voters, the group said, and shows Mr. Hoffman with 34 percent support, Mr. Owens with 29 percent support and Republican Dede Scozzafava with 14 percent support. Thirteen percent were apparently undecided.

The group announced no margin or error for this poll, although I'd guess it'd have to be 6 percent or more. It also provided no online copy of the questions it asked, which, to me, is a red flag.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, a highly respected statistician, said there were a lot of "yellow" flags surrounding Club for Growth's latest poll, which showed Mr. Hoffman with a four-point lead over Mr. Owens including:

• The club's close ties to Mr. Hoffman's campaign
• The small sample size (366 likely voters)
• The high amount of undecideds (22 percent) with a week left before elections
• The high amount of likely voters that claim they don't know the candidates

Both Club for Growth and the Minuteman PAC's numbers are also a far stretch from the last independent poll, which Siena Research Institute released Oct. 15 and showed Mr. Hoffman trailing Mr. Owens by 10 percent.

Of course, that independent poll was before Ms. Scozzafava's run-in with a Weekly Standard reporter, her ill-advised idea to stand in front of Doug Hoffman's campaign office and Mr. Hoffman's endorsements from Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, among others, and his flurry of national television appearances.

So who's right, and who is skewing results to make a certain candidate look good? We'll know in less than a week when the voters head to the ballot boxes. And after that, I'll revisit these polls to see which seemed to be dead on - and which were dead wrong.