Election may set target on district

WASHINGTON — If New York sheds one congressional seat after the 2010 census, as experts predict, Democrats and Republicans will have to fight over which party loses — unless Douglas L. Hoffman saves them the trouble.

Experts on congressional redistricting say that Mr. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate running for the 23rd Congressional District, will make a tempting target for elimination if he holds onto the seat in 2010 and faces a redrawn political map for the 2012 election.

Although all three candidates — Mr. Hoffman, Democrat William L. Owens and Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava — would be vulnerable to redistricting, Mr. Hoffman would be in the weakest position, experts said, because neither the Democrats nor the Republicans in Albany may be interested in protecting him. Congressional districts are drawn by the state Legislature, controlled by Democrats for now, and Mr. Hoffman could be in trouble no matter which party is in control there.

"If Hoffman wins, boy, that district has a big, juicy target on it," said Bruce E. Altschuler, a political science professor at the State University of New York at Oswego.

Added Sherwood L. Boehlert, a former Republican congressman from the Utica area who survived two redistrictings, "I would think a third party candidate would virtually guarantee the elimination of that district as we know it."

The potential breakup of the 23rd Congressional District has concerned the region's political leaders because of the possibility that the north country's rural interests become lost in the priorities of cities such as Syracuse or Utica, which might suddenly share a district with Lowville or Watertown or Massena. Former Rep. John M. McHugh, R-Pierrepont Manor, warned of that possibility before the last redistricting, in 2000, but his district was basically left intact.

He was hardly alone in that belief. Rep. Amo Houghton, R-Corning, ran for re-election in 2000 on a campaign promise of saving his Southern Tier district from elimination. G. Christopher Ortloff, a former state assemblyman from Plattsburgh who served on the state Legislative Task Force on Demographics and Redistricting, recalled last year that in 2000, one of his top priorities was preserving rural upstate congressional districts.

None of the three candidates running in the special election responded directly to questions about the likelihood the district — and with it, their seat — would be eliminated after the 2010 election. Ms. Scozzafava's and Mr. Owens's campaigns said they are focused on the campaign, and Mr. Hoffman's spokesman did not return an e-mail message seeking comment.

But the issue was a topic of discussion during the parties' search for candidates, when officials were looking for someone perhaps without long-term ambitions to run for the seat.

As threatening as the landscape might appear to Mr. Hoffman, none of the candidates can rest easy, expert said. Ms. Scozzafava has connections in Albany that might help her, as did Mr. McHugh, but she stands to be in the minority party and the campaign has shown that her support within the party may be shaky. Mr. Owens, a political newcomer, has new friends in the Washington Democratic establishment who may or may not be able to help him when the lines are drawn.

And given the mapmakers' usual desire to protect long-term incumbents, lawmakers from neighboring districts could be in a stronger position, assuming they also are re-elected in 2010.

"My view is it's a very likely district to go," Mr. Altschuler said. "This is a district in severe risk."

Upstate New York is considered the likely target to lose a seat because the region's population has not kept up with the New York City area's. New York probably loses a seat, experts say, because its population growth is not keeping up with other states, continuing a decades-long trend.

But beyond the certainty that districts will be redrawn, the scenarios for Northern New York representation vary widely.

"The question is where does the population loss occur?" said Michael P. McDonald, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia who has studied redistricting in New York and other states. He said he would not be surprised if the 23rd Congressional District collapses in the process, but that factors such as congressional retirements help determine the outcome.

In the last redistricting, for instance, Rep. John J. LaFalce, D-Grand Island, declined to run in a primary against Rep. Louise M. Slaughter, D-Fairport, whose district was redrawn to include a narrow stretch of the Lake Ontario shoreline toward Buffalo. If Mrs. Slaughter's region is targeted again, the north country district may yet remain intact.

"I'm normally the person in the tank," Mrs. Slaughter said Wednesday, although she added that a less senior lawmaker would seem a more likely target this time.

The situation becomes more problematic if no one agrees to retire, Mr. McDonald said. If Democrats control the Legislature — and especially the state Senate — they are likely to punish as many Republicans as they can, Mr. McDonald said, and protect their own as much as possible.

"We'll have a much better sense after the 2010 election," he said.

Mr. Hoffman would most likely caucus with Republicans in Washington, in practice holding the 23rd District seat for the party. But don't count on the GOP to protect him, Mr. McDonald suggested.

There is some precedent for the political parties throwing renegades overboard during redistricting, Mr. McDonald said. An extreme example, he said, was the jettisoning of Rep. James Traficant's district in Ohio after the 2000 census, when Democrats showed their willingness to keep an indicted lawmaker out of Congress.

In Northern New York, Mr. Owens could be forced into a primary against Reps. Scott Murphy, D-Glens Falls; Michael A. Arcuri, D-Utica; or Daniel Maffei, D-Syracuse, assuming they all win re-election in 2010, unless the state Legislature can draw lines in a way to avoid it.

In that case, Ms. Scozzafava would not be forced into a primary with an incumbent, although she would be especially vulnerable to an opponent running from her political right.

The importance of the state Senate is illustrated by the money the state's delegation typically sends to Senate campaign committees as the process moves along. In Northern New York, state Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine, D-Cape Vincent, could play an important role if the Democrats retain the majority in Albany. He was not available for comment Wednesday, a spokesman said.

Regardless of the personalities involved, the map poses challenges all its own. The congressional district cannot expand north into Canada or west into Lake Ontario or east into Vermont, meaning it must tap into the districts to the south now occupied by Democrats.

"The 23rd District is so big that it's pretty hard to cut up," Mr. Arcuri said. "One district can't take it because it's too big."

And while the district is going to have a relatively junior lawmaker, his or her neighbors are not that senior by comparison. Mr. Arcuri was elected in 2006, Mr. Maffei in 2008 and Mr. Murphy earlier this year after Rep. Kirsten E. Gillibrand was promoted to senator by Gov. David A. Paterson.

"We're all relative newbies," Mr. Arcuri said.