Owens now begins battle

WASHINGTON — Now that William L. Owens has won election to Congress, the hard part begins.

Mr. Owens arrives in the Capitol today as the House tackles health care reform, probably the most perilous vote of the year for Democrats in Republican-leaning districts. He must assemble staffs in Washington and in the district, fill in the gaps of his own knowledge about local issues in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District and prepare to raise money for re-election in just a year — half as long as lawmakers normally have to face voters again.

All the while, the national Republican Party will be drawing up plans to unseat him next year by linking him to a Democratic leadership more liberal than the north country.

To survive, Democratic operatives say, Mr. Owens must quickly build a congressional operation in the north country that appeals to both Democrats and Republicans, robbing the GOP of the opportunity to paint him as partisan. He will have to do it largely from scratch, given the region's limited Democratic infrastructure. And some of his future depends on factors outside his control, such as the prospect of redistricting after the 2010 midterm election.

"Now, it's really about serving everyone, whether Democrat or Republican," said a former House staffer for a Democrat who won in a heavily Republican district in 2006.

Mr. Owens was tentatively scheduled to be sworn in at midday today, but that was subject to change. The House may vote on health care reform Saturday.

Congressional insiders point to Democratic Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand's experience in the 20th Congressional District, in the Adirondacks and Hudson Valley, where she defeated incumbent Rep. John E. Sweeney, R-Clifton Park, in 2006, then beat former New York GOP Chairman Sandy Treadwell in 2008.

Mrs. Gillibrand won with a well-funded, aggressive campaign that seized on public discomfort with President Bush, and she benefited from reports about Mr. Sweeney's alleged violence against his wife. Once in office, she quickly built a reputation for nonpartisan constituent service and relatively conservative views for a Democrat.

Mrs. Gillibrand established "Congress at Your Corner" and town hall style meetings, where she met with constituents. She reached out to town supervisors around the district — 95 percent of them Republicans, a former staffer said — and asked what she could do to help their communities. At official events in the district, she often asked Republican local officials to speak, sharing credit for the issue or grant she was announcing.

She created advisory committees on issues such as agriculture, picking Republicans to serve on them.

Mrs. Gillibrand did all of that while the Republican National Committee maintained the attacks, poking holes in the bipartisan persona.

In some ways, Mrs. Gillibrand's approach — and the one Mr. Owens may seek — reflects the tack Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., took to the north country when she served in the Senate, crossing party lines and giving lawmakers such as former Rep. John M. McHugh, R-Pierrepont Manor, credit for Fort Drum projects and other matters they worked on together.

Of course, Mrs. Gillibrand and Mrs. Clinton also had no trouble raising money on their own. Mrs. Gillibrand did not need as much help from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, for instance, on her 2008 re-election.

Whether Mr. Owens will face a serious challenge in 2010 remains to be seen. The 23rd Congressional District does not have a shortage of Republicans interested in the position, if the process that selected this year's candidate is any indication. But Republicans will have to decide whether the district's uncertain future after the 2010 census makes additional investment worthwhile, even though the political environment seems to favor Republicans in the midterm elections.

Democrats, meanwhile, say they are maintaining an interest in the district generally but could not say whether they will make it a priority in 2010.

The district seemed a likely target if Mr. Hoffman won, given his third-party status and lack of connections in Albany — where the Legislature will determine which district or districts are eliminated, depending on population. A Democratic-controlled Legislature would have looked for ways to squeeze him out. Now, with Mr. Owens, the discussion may be about saving him, said David Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks congressional races.

But any of the candidates would be in peril, said Bruce E. Altschuler, a political science professor at SUNY Oswego, recently.

Two other districts — Mrs. Gillibrand's, now represented by Rep. Scott Murphy, D-Glens Falls; and the area represented by Rep. Michael A. Arcuri, D-Utica, may help determine whether Mr. Owens faces a serious Republican challenge, Mr. Wasserman said.

"It depends on their ability to convince a candidate to run," said Mr. Wasserman. That depends in part on whether the district appears destined to disappear after the census, he said. Redistricting could be "absolutely a damper on Republicans," he said.

Mr. Owens may have history on his side, by Mr. Wasserman's estimation.

"It's rare that someone who wins a special election loses the next time," Mr. Wasserman said. "The historical odds are on Owens's side at the outset."