Hoffman poll shows Hoffman ahead of Republican challengers

Here's your "dog bites man" story for today.

Fifty-six percent of 300 Republicans who are likely to vote in a primary believe Doug Hoffman would win a four-way race for the Republican nomination in the 23rd Congression District if he were to run, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll paid for by Mr. Hoffman.

Assemblyman William A. Barclay, R-Pulaski, finishes second in this poll, with 22 percent believing he would emerge victorious. Franklin County Legislator Paul Maroun finishes third with 4 percent. Matt Doheny has 1 percent. Eighteen percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted Jan. 4-5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percent.

Mr. Hoffman was also the favorite in a two-way race between himself and Mr. Barclay, 56-24, with 19 percent undecided. And he apparently trounces Mr. Doheny, 69-6, with 24 percent undecided.

The poll also found that 71 percent agree that "if Doug Hoffman runs again in November with both the Republican and Conservative party lines, he can beat Democrat Bill Owens." Imagine that. Republicans think a Republican can win. Actually, I'm surprised that 29 percent can't conceive of at least one scenario in which Mr. Hoffman wins.

The poll also demonstrates the problem with this sort of early polling. Seventy-eight percent of people say they don't know Mr. Doheny enough to say if they like him or not; 73 percent they don't know Mr. Maroun.

It's hard to therefore predict, with any accuracy, how Mr. Hoffman would fare in a head-to-head primary with any of these three candidates before they've gotten a chance to introduce themselves to voters. When you consider this point and that the Hoffman people released this to the media, it's easy to feel that the poll is more akin to propaganda than reflection of reality.

UPDATE#2: Mr. Doheny has fired back at Mr. Hoffman's poll, saying: ""His claims are not surprising, given the millions of dollars spent on his behalf in his unsuccessful bid for Congress in this past year's special election. Be assured, over the next 10 months, I will have the resources that will ensure voters hear my message about creating opportunities, improving the local economy, and how I will be their representative in Congress."

UPDATE#3: Mr. Barclay has also now weighed in with a press release titled, "Candidate Gets Results He Paid For."

"Just last November we saw a lot of polls predicting that Hoffman would win the race," the assemblyman said in a statement. "That was not to be. If I run, the only poll I care about will be the one on election day. That's what campaigns are for. When voters get the opportunity to compare the candidates, I like my chances."

UPDATE#4: I called Mr. Maroun. He also pointed out the poll was conducted before there are any announced candidates or active campaigning.

“I’m not saddened at all by this poll because I think it’s really premature. I think Doug Hoffman wasted his contributors’ money on it,” he said. “You can do a lot with polls and you can do a lot with money, but you can’t trick the voters in this district.”

By virtue of his highly publicized run during last fall's special election, Mr. Hoffman has the highest favorables in the poll among the four candidates - 63 percent. But he also posts the highest unfavorables - 19 percent.

UPDATE: Brian Lantier of Grindstone Financial says the poll skews too heavily toward the elderly.

Full release below: