Medicare switch

A private research firm predicts that nearly 3 million seniors will have to switch their Medicare prescription plan next year as a result of changes accompanying the massive health care reform legislation enacted this year.

Avalere Health says the switch to new plans will result from efforts to reduce consumer confusion and duplication in the hundreds of plans offered nationwide. Rather than 40 or more plans in each state, Medicare beneficiaries will choose from about 30 or so.

While there will still be "robust choice," Bonnie Washington, a senior analyst with Avalere Health, said it will result in "some disruption and inconvenience" for those forced to find another plan. Avalere Health is a private group which provides research on Medicare and Medicaid to industry and government clients.

For those forced to find a new insurer, the changes could also mean changes in premiums and co-payments for beneficiaries living on fixed incomes.

Medicare officials dispute the claims, which Avalere says is based on Medicare guidelines.

"Anybody who is producing that kind of analysis is simply guessing," said Jonathan Blum, deputy administrator for Medicare. He said the administration is "not reducing the number of quality plans," which does not contradict reports that there will be fewer plans.

That means less competition that can hold down costs. It also undermines President Obama's promise during the health care debate that those who like their health plan will be able to keep it.

Reducing the number of plans is supported by AARP, the lobby for seniors, but the reduction will require some prescription plan beneficiaries to switch coverage.

The dispute may be in the numbers rather than the consequences. Fewer plans will mean fewer health care choices.