FORT DRUM — The 10th Mountain Division deployment schedules show population fluctuations until 2012, but anything beyond then is anybody's guess.
"It's a very difficult analysis," said Carl A. McLaughlin, executive director of the Fort Drum Regional Liaison Organization.
It's possible to estimate the population of soldiers on post, but that number often changes, he said. An estimated 12,000 soldiers are working on post because about 7,500 of Fort Drum's 19,500 soldiers are currently deployed.
This time next year, all of Fort Drum's units are expected to be home, causing a "full nest," but only for a short time. The 3,500-soldier 2nd Brigade Combat Team has been notified that it will deploy next summer. No plans for deployments beyond that have been announced by the division but it can be affected by changes in the Afghan war.
The Obama administration plans to complete a drawdown there in 2014 and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has recommended cutting 40,000 soldiers from the Army by 2015. For the current fiscal year, the Army is authorized 562,400 personnel.
There is no indication, however, that any of the potential cuts will be at Fort Drum.
Army and post officials have rejected the persistent rumor that the division's 4th Brigade Combat Team — based at Fort Polk, La. — will join the rest of the division here. Mr. McLaughlin said he has not heard of plans for other units being assigned here by the Army.
With about half of Fort Drum's soldiers living off post, the division's affect on the community is strongly felt. The majority of those live within 25 miles of their work sites, according to a 2009 Fort Drum housing study.
About 51 percent of the post's soldiers are accompanied.
■ 23 percent of them are here with only a spouse.
■ 26 percent have one dependent, not counting the spouse.
■ 25 percent have two dependents, not counting the spouse.
■ 26 percent have three or more dependents, not counting the spouse.
Populations of those families are just as fluid as those of soldiers, because more than a fifth of them would choose not to stay when a soldier is deployed, according to the survey.
"We lose family members when deployments occur," Mr. McLaughlin said, adding that they do so because families have ties at home that include jobs, housing and school.
Early next year, Fort Drum will have more soldiers in the north country than ever before. While that number will dip a few months later, though, it is not known if units will deploy beyond that.
