SLU stats professor weighs pros, cons

CANTON — So you're sitting back in your recliner, a bowl of popcorn perched on your stomach, watching with rapt attention the National Hockey League draft, and you see your favorite team select a stud from junior hockey with its first pick.

You're stoked. But suddenly the television reports that pick was traded away for a couple players later in the draft. Now, you're steaming, cursing your team's front office decision while you contemplate another year at the bottom of the standings.

St. Lawrence University statistics professor Michael Schuckers can tell you if your ire is valid. Schuckers analyzed decades of NHL draft picks and their careers, which can help hockey teams assess their talent and more easily determine the pros and cons of a trade.

"I do that by looking back at historical data in terms of how players perform," Schuckers said. "The metric that we used is not perfect, but one that allows us to compare players across positions by the number of games they ended up playing (in the NHL)."

For example, trading the No. 2 draft pick for the 8th and 32nd is fair, according to Schuckers's analysis. The second pick historically averages 871 NHL games, while the 8th pick plays in 629 and the 32nd plays in 246.

"It will allow a team to say that they want to move from the 20th pick up to the fifth pick and how much should they be willing to give for that team," Schuckers said.

Schuckers will submit his findings and paper for publication in a scholarly journal later this summer. For now, it exists as a downloadable file on St. Lawrence University's website. Eventually, he hopes it will spark talks with NHL front office officials and help trade negotiations.

To access his paper, visit: http://www.stlawu.edu/news/schuckers_nhlanalysis.html.