Stuart Rothenberg writes in Roll Call today that the north country's congressional seat is a "very reasonable takeover opportunity" for Republicans.
Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, represents a district with a wide Republican enrollment advantage — which only got wider after redistricting.
Matt Doheny and Kellie Greene are vying for the GOP nod on June 26; Mr. Doheny has secured third-party lines already, ensuring his spot on the ballot.
Mr. Rothenberg brings up an interesting caveat about coattails — that it's very reasonable, "assuming presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney doesn't get buried in the fall."
Read the whole thing here.
Other analysts — namely, Larry Sabato and Dave Wasserman — say that the district is "leaning" toward Mr. Owens.