Election Lab, a forecasting model created by Washington Post reporters, predicts that Elise M. Stefanik, the Republican candidate for New York’s 21st Congressional District, will win against Democrat Aaron G. Woolf in November.
Election Lab gives Ms. Stefanik a 92 percent shot at victory and Mr. Woolf only an 8 percent chance.
According to its website, Election Lab bases its predictions on election data from 1980 to 2012. The project looks at how certain factors related to the outcome of elections in those years and then gathers information about those same factors for the current election year.
Election Lab is also predicting that Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and take control of the U.S. Senate.
To view results specific to the 21st Congressional District, click here: http://wdt.me/labNY21